2021 NCAA Women’s Ice Hockey Tournament Preview
The NCAA Tournament starts today. Which one? The only one that matters people.
That’s right. Division I Women’s Ice Hockey sees its quarterfinals start this week! So, let’s break down the matchups and some players to keep an eye on.
#1 Northeastern vs. #8 Robert Morris (2 PM, 3/15, NCAA.com)
The Huskies lost one game in regulation all season. Let that sink in. Aerin Frankel has a legitimate case to be only the 4th goaltender to ever win the Patty Kazmaier Award this year, as she broke records left and right. She posted an 18-1-1 record with a 0.70 GAA and .969 SV% this year in 20 starts. That’s…absurd. She had 9 shutouts. NINE. Almost half of her starts resulted in a shutout. Alina Mueller is a superstar in her own right, leading the country in scoring. She can take over a game at any moment. They had four players over a point per game this year. Chloe Aurard is almost as dangerous as Mueller, burying more than half a goal per game, 2nd most in the country. Having Maureen Murphy on that line is almost a cheat code, with 16 points in 13 games for the Providence transfer an underrated aspect of their success this year. Of course, superstar defender Skylar Fontaine cannot be forgotten. The highest scoring defender in the country tallied 5 more points than any other rearguard, and was a dominant force in transition. She’s one half of the most complete defensive pairing in the country with captain Brooke Hobson. Katy Knoll had a brilliant sophomore campaign as the team’s second line center, notching 20 points in 22 games.
Basically, Northeastern is obscenely good with almost zero weaknesses. So, how on earth will Robert Morris, in only their second ever tournament appearance, be able to handle this juggernaut? Well, they’re going to need a big game from senior Lexi Templeman, who put up a career year as the 4th leading scorer in the country this year. She spent the majority of the time setting up junior Michaela Boyle, who finished the year just under a point per game herself. Freshman Ellie Marcovsky was stellar for the Colonials, and she will need to be in order for them to have any level of secondary scoring. Sophomore Raygan Kirk might be one of the best goalies in the country you’ve never heard of. She’s 4th in the country in save percentage, and she’s going to need to stand on her head for Robert Morris to have any iota of a chance to upset the Top Ranked Huskies.
X-Factors:
Northeastern – F Andrea Renner
Renner’s story is incredible. After taking the entire year off last season with a severe back injury, she’s come back and been an important cog on the Huskies second line. Her leadership and influence has gone a long way towards growing Katie Knoll into the dynamic threat she’s become on Northeastern’s second line.
Robert Morris – F Maggy Burbidge
The sophomore is the third cog on the Colonial’s top line, but probably the least talked about. She nearly doubled her points-per-game rate of her freshman year despite playing 12 fewer games, and can find the soft spots in coverage because of her higher profile linemates.
Prediction: Northeastern. This team has literally zero holes.
#2 Wisconsin vs. #7 Providence (2 PM, 3/16, NCAA.com)
The Badgers are quite deserving of the #2 seed after taking down Ohio State in the WCHA Championship game. They had a difficult time getting the season going, having several COVID breakouts in the latter half of 2020, but came on strong in the second half. Daryl Watts is once again nominated for the Patty Kazmaier after being second in the country in scoring and leading the nation in goals. Junior Sophie Shirley remarkably got even better this year, and I think Brette Pettit might actually be the most complete player on the entire team. But what really scares me about Wisconsin is their depth. Watts isn’t even playing on their top line. Instead, she’s found chemistry with freshman Lacey Eden, who joined the team in the second semester after Princeton had cancelled the season. Eden, who tallied the overtime winner against Ohio State, made college hockey look easy to the tune of 15 points in her first 12 collegiate games. There aren’t many teams with that level of firepower, and I’m not sure Providence has the personnel to shut down both lines effectively. This team loves getting into a track-meet with their opponent, preferring to trade goals than prevent them, and I just don’t see more than a handful of teams who can effectively match them.
To be quite frank, I’m not sure if Providence should even be in the tournament. They got killed in the Hockey East Championship game, and although they took 2 of 3 from BC, they also had a really difficult time with UNH, and split with Maine. They have some really nice players; junior Sara Hjalmarsson is one of the best power forwards in the country, but has hit a wall in the second half of the season. They are only getting goalscoring from one line, and when your star player struggles to produce, it’s not a great recipe for success. They had some excellent freshman defenders step into the lineup – Brooke Becker has a legitimate case for National Rookie of the Year as the highest scoring freshman defender with 14 points in 20 games. Claire Tyo was a sneaky good transition player on the back end. But at the end of the day, they are going to need goaltender Sandra Abstreiter to stand on her head to have a chance against the Badgers. Not only that, but they’ve been playing with a shorthanded roster as of late, and unless the players who have been out are miraculously cleared to play, I struggle to find a way for the Friars to come out on top here.
X-Factors:
Wisconsin – G Kennedy Blair
The 5th year senior and Mercyhurst transfer was strong in net for the Badgers this year, to the tune of 14 wins in 18 appearances and a .931 save percentage. She hasn’t had to be outstanding, but she also has flashed the ability to steal a game or two if needed in her career. With Wisconsin wanting to play firewagon hockey most nights, Blair has to be consistent in her crease if the Badgers want another National Championship on their resume.
Providence – D Lauren Deblois
After an outstanding freshman campaign, Deblois’ production cratered this year. Part of that was the emergence of Brooke Becker for the Friars, but Deblois is a significantly more physical defender on the back end, and if she can rediscover even a fraction of that offensive ability, it could go a long way towards Providence making this a close game.
Prediction: Wisconsin. I really hope this isn’t a blowout, because it really has the largest probability of becoming one.
#3 Ohio State vs. #6 Boston College (7 PM, 3/16, NCAA.com)
The Buckeyes have really started to become a thorn in Wisconsin’s side lately, seemingly surpassing Minnesota as the Badgers’ biggest competition in the WCHA. The two teams took the WCHA Championship to overtime for a second consecutive year, but Wisconsin came out on top this time around. The real struggle for Ohio State this year has been getting scoring out of their top players. They don’t have a single skater who produced above a point-per-game this season, and only 6 players broke double digits in points. The dynamic duo of Tatum Skaggs and Emma Maltais were well off of their career scoring paces without a ton of logical explanations as to why. Sophomore Jennifer Gardiner was a good fit with them on the top line, but they really miss the production of Jincy Dunne on the back end. In net, Andrea Brändli was solid if even below average, with a .918 save percentage across 16 starts, and a goals against average just below 2. Those are solid numbers most years, but goaltending around the country spiked this year by a considerable amount – the average save percentage was right around .935 for the season. They need to either find a way to generate more offense or get some outstanding games out of Brändli to win the title, but they should be perfectly capable of taking out Boston College.
BC…barely squeaked in here. Let’s be honest – their one quality win was against Northeastern (they are the only team to beat the #1 seeded Huskies in regulation this year), but it was also Northeastern’s first game of the season. It was Boston College’s 7th. They didn’t make it past the quarterfinals in Hockey East either despite being the #2 seed, and their paltry showing in a 5-1 loss to Connecticut was more than disappointing. It continues to be the same problem with the Eagles – consistent goaltending has eluded them since the graduation of Katie Burt. Maddy MacArthur, Kelly Pickreign, and Minnesota State transfer Abigail Levy all split time as Katie Crowley attempted to determine their best option. Levy seems to have taken the reigns, and to her credit, she’s earned it, providing significantly more consistent goaltending than the two Eagle incumbents. But she also was the goaltender of record in their quarterfinal loss, and a decent chunk of the goals she allowed were…not of a great nature. Offensively, this is still a star-studded team. Sophomore Hannah Bilka saw a dip in her production as teams started to focus in on her, but that allowed junior Savannah Norcross to have a breakout season, leading the team in goals and tying with fellow junior Kelly Browne for the team lead in points. Sophomore Hadley Hartmetz was the most dangerous rearguard on a team that features Alexie Guay and Olympic gold medalist Cayla Barnes. But after scoring 4 goals in her collegiate debut, Gabby Roy only tallied one more marker and appeared in less than half of the team’s games this season. They are an incredibly young team, particularly on the back end. Barnes is still playing more than half the game, and they have bizarre defensive breakdowns constantly. I think they might actually have had a better shot at taking out a Wisconsin because they are one of the few teams who can run-and-gun with the Badgers, but a more defensively-responsible matchup like the Buckeyes is going to give Boston College fits.
X-Factors:
Ohio State – F Jenna Buglioni
Buglioni had an excellent freshman campaign, finishing 4th on the team in scoring as their #2 center. She is going to have to continue carrying that second line to give Ohio State two legitimate scoring threats if the Buckeyes have aspirations of grandeur.
Boston College – F Willow Corson
After her highlight reel assist made the rounds on social media this year, Corson’s production…stagnated a bit. The senior is solid in her own end, but the Eagles will need her to step up and drive their second line with Roy seemingly unavailable.
Prediction: Ohio State. The Buckeyes have the defensive acumen to ground the Eagle offense.
#4 Colgate vs. #5 Minnesota-Duluth (7 PM, 3/15, NCAA.com)
Here’s where things get interesting. Colgate had one of the more bizarre schedules this year – they played Clarkson for almost half of their schedule. This made for excellent viewing, but it also makes it more difficult to measure the Raiders against national competition. Freshman goaltender Kayle Osborne started all 22 games for Colgate and was average, but good enough to flash some of the potential they clearly see in her for game-stealing ability. Colgate didn’t have anybody score more than a point-per-game, but they saw production spike from several key players this year. Sophomore Danielle Serdachny looks every bit like a true number one center. She’s tall, long, and has fantastic finishing ability. Czech junior Noemi Neubauerová has grown into an effective power forward for Colgate, and countrywoman Kalty Kaltounkova broke onto the scene in her freshman campaign by scoring her first collegiate goal by virtue of batting the puck out of mid-air. Junior Tanner Gates is a calming presence on the blueline, and helps push the play effectively in transition. The only concerning part for the Raiders is the lack of production from their senior class. Coralie Larose has been disappointing, with only 3 points to show for her effort, and the blueline does not produce a lot of offense outside of Gates. But their top line is so good, I’m not sure how much of an impact their depth issues are going to play.
UMD is the most controversial inclusion in the tournament, making it in as the 3rd WCHA team despite having been swept by Minnesota who was left on the outside looking in. They then got massacred in their semi-final matchup to the tune of a 7-2 shellacking at the hands of Ohio State. Frankly, I expect junior Emma Söderberg needs to be their best player to go very far. Söderberg was excellent this year, with a .941 save percentage across 17 starts. Senior Anna Klein and junior Gabbie Hughes are a dynamic duo up front, but once you get past them, the Bulldogs have struggled to find consistent offense. Ashton Bell is an underrated play driver on the back end, but they will need more out of someone like senior Naomi Rogge offensively if they expect to take a run at the championship. This is easily the most even matchup of the entire first round, and it feels very much like a game that will be decided by a bizarre ricochet off of a referee or something.
X-Factors:
Colgate – F Sammy Smigliani
Once you get through Neubauerová, Kaltounkova, and Serdachny, Smigliani is far and away the Raiders next best option. She’s been good, but with UMD likely focusing on shutting down the big three for Colgate, Smigliani is going to be called upon to seize the moment.
Minnesota-Duluth – F Clara Van Wieren
Van Wieren turned in a solid and respectable freshman campaign with 10 points in 15 games for the Bulldogs. The kicker is, seven of those were goals. If Klein and Hughes are neutralized, Van Weiren is going to be looked at as UMD’s best option to drive offensive play.
Prediction: Minnesota-Duluth. I think Söderberg is the difference in a game that will have weird penalties and goals that are deflected in off of body parts.
