24 Points on the Line: Assessing the Pride’s Plan of Action

Image via Michelle Jay

You better love an uphill battle, because this just got difficult. 

Season 7 rocks on with Toronto thriving at the top of the standings, followed by Connecticut, and then Boston trailing first by 16 points and second by 13. With the PHF opting for a neutral site playoffs with all 6 teams, the first round bye will be vital. Let’s take a look at the Pride’s path to a Sunday game in Tampa. 

Winning Out:

There are 24 points available to the Pride for the rest of this season. Starting February 26 against Buffalo, the team plays a two-game series against Buffalo twice, Toronto once, and Metro twice. A point in the Pride’s favor is never returning to Minnesota or Connecticut. 

Winning out puts the pride at 42 points at season’s end. However, in this scenario even with the Pride sweeping Toronto in regulation, the Six finish with 49 points at season’s end. Yet, Toronto finds themselves playing the Pride and Whale in back to back weekends. 

Four losses with the Pride winning out sets Toronto at… 43 points. Even worse, it puts Connecticut at 49 points meaning Boston still finishes third. So even winning out, Boston play the 6 seed on Friday March 25.

The Connecticut Route:

I’m rooting for Connecticut to do well. This is a team that deserves to be good, so I apologize but this is the best case scenario for a bye. 

Connecticut has 18 points up for grabs from March 5-20. Lucky for the Pride, Minnesota and Toronto are on the slate. 

Minnesota never has and never will be an east opponent. They don’t need to sweep, they need to split. The Whitecaps are a vital part of the Pride’s chances at a first round bye. Should they split the series, we can assume Connecticut bounces back against Buffalo and pulls together 9 points. At season’s end Connecticut sits at 40 in this situation. 

Why 40? The Pride need to sweep Toronto, and then hope Toronto comes out swinging the next weekend. A weekend sweep for Toronto sets them at a comfortable first with 49 points, followed by Boston at 42, and Connecticut at 40. 

The Toronto Route:

Toronto’s option for winning out awards them 21 points. They can finish the season at 55. Keeping them below 42 is the most difficult part considering they’re already at 34. 8 points means Toronto can only win 2. 

Buffalo hosts Toronto outdoors on Monday. Rivalry games in special circumstances could bring out the win. Buffalo has pulled out wins against the Whitecaps and nothing says the Beauts can’t do it against the Six. However, I don’t find that likely. 

Should Toronto beat Buffalo, they need to split with Metro (or win both in OT) and lose out to Boston and Connecticut, they sit at 40-41 points. Connecticut could win out or sporadically lose but in most scenarios they finish first. 

Winning out sets the Whale at 49 points (1st), losing 2 games but still beating Toronto sets them at 43 (1st), meaning if Connecticut sweeps Toronto but loses 3 games along the way, wins one in OT, and Toronto’s path plays out as above, the Pride can take first place by winning out with 42 points. 

The Best Scenerio:

I’ll be the first to admit it, first place is not a viable option. It relies on two great hockey teams losing a lot of games. 

So what’s the most likely? Toronto see Metro twice, and as the Pride and Whitecaps learned; they’ll put up a fight. I can see them pulling one of those away. Boston has two wins against the Six already (but one is in OT). If they take one in regulation and one in OT again they can still finish second with the tiebreaker. 

Boston controls their own destiny in the Toronto scenario, but it also relies on a sweep for Connecticut. Connecticut can split all three series and still finish with 40 points. So, if you want my opinion: the Connecticut Route is best.

There are so many uphill battles for the Whale. Buffalo is gaining momentum, Toronto wants revenge, and Minnesota needs to keep fighting. Winning out for them would be Hell. 

And remember: all this hinges on the Pride winning out. One loss and the Pride’s best case is 3rd with 39 points. I’m excited to see the results.